This is our 5th year of counting so we have some degree of history and we have complete counts as of Day # 7 of the 2010 run. I'm going to compare this first 7 days of the run to prior years in the chart below to demonstrate what's going on. I know that all of these numbers can be confusing, but there are so many variables we have to apply some math to what have we observed.
The table below shows the quantity that was counted through Day # 7 in prior years [these counts were taken at Mill Pond]:
| | | Compared | Percent Done | Total If 2010 | Total Counted | Total Counted |
| | Count | To 2010 | On This Day | Were this Year | This Year | Vs Projected |
| 2010 | 200 | | | | | |
| 2009 | 741 | -73% | 65% | 308 | 1,332 | -1,024 |
| 2008 | 980 | -80% | 21% | 976 | 5,232 | -4,256 |
| 2007 | 625 | -68% | 39% | 509 | 1,741 | -1,232 |
| 2006 | 326 | -28% | 54% | 370 | 720 | -350 |
The column Compared To 2010 shows the percent difference that 2010 is to those prior years. Ex: The 200 in 2010 is 73% less then what we counted through Day # 7 in 2009.
The Percent Done On This Day shows what percent of the total counted in that year were counted through day # 7. Ex: On day # 7 in 2007, we had counted 39% of the total counted for 2007.
The Total If 2010 Were This Year column shows what the total for that year would have projected to using the 2010 count to-date. Ex: On Day # 7 in 2006, we were 54% complete. The 2010 to-date count of 200 extrapolated by 54% projects to 370 counted.
The Total Counted This Year column shows what the actual final count for that year. Ex: In 2007 we counted 1,741 fish in total.
The Total Counted Vs Projected column shows the difference between the two columns to the left. Ex: If in 2008, had we counted 200 fish on Day # 7 of the run, we would have ended up counting only 976 fish in 2008, or 4,245 less fish then there actually were in 2008.
The question is: has the 2010 run actually started in earnest or is this some abnormally we're experiencing, with just a dribble of fish before the rush. If it is the former, any way you look at it, this may be a very disappointing year...
Note: Why do I make these charts? Because lots of people ask me 'How's the run this year'? and then when I tell them, they ask why do I think that, and I say 'It's complicated'.
And we must apply caution to these charts [being just one week done]. Look at how the column Percent Done On This Day varies from year to year: In 2008 we were just 1/5 done after one week whereas at the same relative day in 2009 we were 2/3 done - a huge difference.
Just the same, my gut feeling is not very good.
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