Things are grinding to a halt...

The counts for the last few days have been mostly zeros, so we'll be terminating the counting program on May 23 instead of June 2 as originally planned.

I know I said that I'd post a graph comparing 2007 and 2006, but other tasks, like getting ready for River Day, took priority.

About 60 people entered the Herring Counting Contest today at River Day and the winner will receive a prize of $250. I'll post a list of the guesses in a few days.

I'll also post complete counting results when we have them back from the Division Of Marine Fisheries, which should be in a couple of weeks.

This 2007 counting program was a tremendous success and the online posting of counts save yours truly a tremendous amount of work. So, thanks again to all who participated!

Volume still strong

The counts are yielding relatively strong and steady numbers, with things still quiet in the morning and most activity in the late afternoon.

The second week of the run [April 29 - May 5] was stronger then the first week in total numbers counted.

This has been a noticeable change from 2006 where the second week faded away to almost nothing.

I'll post a chart in a day or so comparing this year to last.

Encouraging numbers, trends...

Compared to 2006, the herring migration [to date] has been different in several ways.

I say to date, however, because you really can't make an accurate assessment until it's all done, but these points are clear:

1. The quantity is greater than last year: in 2006 the highest single 10 minute count was 60 herring [or 360/hour] and so far this year we've had a high count of 109 [or 654/hour].
2. Many other counts are higher although not as strong as that peak number.
   
3. The trend by day this year is quite different then 2006, when there was a noticeable drop-off after the first week. Except for a few relatively lighter days, this year it's been pretty steady from the beginning.
4. The mornings have been very light, with most of the herring passing in mid to late afternoon, from 2:00 to 6:00 pm.
   

We have only last year to compare to, so it's hard interpret these trends and to make any meaningful predictions, except that in general terms, things look somewhat improved over 2006.

The whole program has been running quite smoothly and our counters have been doing a great job!!

Having them post their counts directly to their online spreadsheets saves a lot of work all around and allows us to post these timely observations.

The fish are jumping [well, they're swimming...]

At times on Monday, April 23, the herring were counted at the rate of several hundred an hour, which was a very welcome sight. If you want to see a lot of herring, the next couple of days will be one of the best times. The run is located here.

Some of our counters are posting their tallies right after taking their count, thus allowing me to provide the readers of this blog such timely information.

But it's still too early to project anything from the numbers so far, as we'll need a few more days of counting to be able to do any meaningful comparison to the 2006 run.

No, they aren't jumping: unlike salmon, which leap out of the water when migrating, herring swim as they move through each step in the ladder of the run. That's why it's so important that there be no obstructions in the flow of water and that the steps in the ladders be carefully designed to accommodate this trait.

The 2006 Run: Day By Day

This chart shows the 2006 herring run, with the daily counts projected to a daily total.

So if the overall trend is the same this year as it was in 2006, that means that the peak day this year will be 4 days after the first sighting.

The first sighting this year was on April 21, 2007. So therefore, the peak this year should occur about 4 days after that, or April 25/26 [just guessing, of course...].

Also, in 2006 50% of the total number of herring arrived in the first 5 days of the run.

If these trends are the same this year as last, and if you knew the daily counts this year and last, you could do a projection for this year, couldn't you? Yeah, you could, but we're not going to post the daily counts anywhere, because...

All of these numbers are intended to torment those that are planning to enter the contest to guess the total herring count this year. You can enter that contest on River Day [May 20, 2007] and win $250!

We'll toss out more help later on with additional numbers that will be totally useless by themselves or in conjunction with anything else we've already told you...

Counting started

Counting started at 7:00 am today. No herring were observed.

The water temperature surged up to 65 degrees at 1:00 pm, plenty warm, and herring were spotted off and on all afternoon.

I took a look down river and saw over 100 fish gathering in a pool.

With the warm temps and ample sunshine forecast for the next few days and with the water volume finally diminishing after the storm earlier this week, we should see some large counts in the next couple of days.

Herring have arrived

Charlie Thifault spotted scouts today at the herring run and we are going to commence counting starting Saturday April 21.

Counters should not be disappointed with zero counts as they will start off as a trickle.

Still no herring

Water temperature today was 51 degrees, so we're moving into the proper range now, but the volume of water from this past storm is still roaring through.

While yours truly had a stick with a thermometer on it stuck in the water, the state environmental police happened to be driving by and thought I was taking herring. Good thing my stick didn't have a net on it...

PS: he said they were running in Brewster.

Schedules sent

The counting schedules were sent out to 32 counters today, with 26 of them working online and 6 through the regular mail.

You can view the Master Schedule here, but it shows just the counter's number in each time slot and it's not real informative unless you know who has which number. We may post the counter's names later [if we get their permission].

Still no fish in sight and the water flow at the Herring Run at Mill Pond is still pretty ferocious. It may take another couple of days for this to flush out. Best guess for the arrival of herring is Saturday or Sunday, April 21-22. In 2006 they arrived on April 12.

All online counters were instructed to standby until they received a notice to start counting.

No fish yet...

The water temperature at noon today was 47 degrees and there's no sign of any fish.

The cold rain that's due with this storm will keep the water cool, and the large volume of water passing through the culvert under Route 28 will be more then the herring can overtake. That will hold them back for a few days anyway.

We're checking the water temp several times a day and don't expect any activity until it's over 50 degrees and until the water velocity diminishes.

The counting project schedules will be out probably Tuesday April 17. We're waiting on a few stragglers to send in their availability which we need before we can complete the scheduling. But because this storm will delay the herring, there isn't any urgency.

Examples of River Herring

Below are examples of what are called River Herring, a term used to differentiate them from ocean herring.

River Herring are anadromous, meaning they migrate from the sea up rivers and streams to breed and River Herring do that in April/May here in New England.




Blueback herring









Alewife





While there are obvious differences in the above depictions, it's very hard to distinguish between these fish when you are looking down into the water.

It was determined in 2006 that the Marstons Mills migration is that of alewives - because of their arrival in early April.

Water temperature: 43 F

The water temperature at the Herring Run was 43 degrees at noon today, well below the 51 degrees that the herring are waiting for.

With cold air temperatures [highs in the 40's] and cloudy skies [that block the sun] in the forecast, it's unlike to shoot up very quickly.

My bet is they will be delayed this year, like April 15 or later...

Scheduling forms sent

Scheduling forms were sent to the 29 people that have volunteered [to-date] to count. 25 of these will use "Google Docs & Spreadsheets" to communicate their availability, the remaining 4 will do so via regular mail. The instructions that they are using can be found here.

When this first step has been completed, a Master Schedule will be produced and then each counter's spreadsheet will be updated with the dates/times they are scheduled to count. Then, when they take their count, they will post that count back into their spreadsheet.

These counts will then be aggregated into a composite spreadsheet. We'll tell you how to see both the Master Schedule and the counts in a later post.

2007 Kick-Off...

As of this morning 20 people have "enrolled" in the 2007 Marstons Mills River Herring Counting Project, and we'll be sending them the scheduling forms soon.

Starting this week, a couple of people will be taking the water temperature and keeping an eye out for scouts. It's always a problem trying to figure out when to start the counting...

If you know of anyone that would like to help out in this years counting project, please direct them to here. Twenty counters is not a lot of people for the number of counts we'll have to take [60 days times 9 per day equals 540 counts], so please assist us in finding more help if you can.

For those interested in the results of the 2006 counting project, you can find that information here.