With almost all zeros for the last two days, we've ended the counting for 2009.
We're deeply indebted to all of our counters - we did over 450 counts and missed only a couple - great work by all involved!!
We'll publish the details of the count in our next Newsletter. Join our Emailing list at the link at the right to receive it.
Note: All of the counters are automatically on this list, no need to join again.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Watching The Counting Results Closely
We're racking up a mostly zeros now and if this goes on for another day or two, we'll call it quits.
We're now in the 25th Day of the Run this year, and as posted earlier, we ended in prior years as follows:
We're now in the 25th Day of the Run this year, and as posted earlier, we ended in prior years as follows:
- 2008 - Day 36
- 2007 - Day 23
- 2006 - Day 27
Monday, May 11, 2009
Depends Upon How You Look At It...
While my last post lamented over the sudden drop-off in counts, there is a bright side to the numbers!
If you click on the "schedules and counts" link at the right, then on the "MillPond.YearToYear" tab, you'll see that the 2009 "Run Cumulative Count" for day 19 [the last completely counted day as of this writing] was 1,288 Herring.
Compared to 2008 [4,577], that's not very good - a drop of 3,289 Herring counted, or -72%. BUT, compared to 2006 [481] it's a increase of 807 Herring counted or +167% - and that's great news!
Why? Because the Herring returning in 2009 have nothing to do with the Herring that were here in 2008 and 2007. Herring are at least 3 years old before they reach maturity and return to spawn, meaning that the Herring in the 2009 migration are the offspring of those in the 2006 migration.
Granted, some of those returning in 2009 may be 4 years old [and older], but almost all of my research puts the return at 3 years of age. So, we should be pleased that the 2006 offspring are returning in significantly higher numbers!
Separately, we're monitoring the counts very closely now, as we'll try to end the counting as soon as it looks like the migration is over, so as to not waste our counter's time.
But a look at 2006 shows 2 surges after some very low counts. And, perhaps we stopped just a little too soon in 2008.
We know that many of our counters are ringing in zeros right now, but if we didn't count them, we wouldn't know they were zero - and knowing it's zero is equally as important as knowing it was, say 100.
If you click on the "schedules and counts" link at the right, then on the "MillPond.YearToYear" tab, you'll see that the 2009 "Run Cumulative Count" for day 19 [the last completely counted day as of this writing] was 1,288 Herring.
Compared to 2008 [4,577], that's not very good - a drop of 3,289 Herring counted, or -72%. BUT, compared to 2006 [481] it's a increase of 807 Herring counted or +167% - and that's great news!
Why? Because the Herring returning in 2009 have nothing to do with the Herring that were here in 2008 and 2007. Herring are at least 3 years old before they reach maturity and return to spawn, meaning that the Herring in the 2009 migration are the offspring of those in the 2006 migration.
Granted, some of those returning in 2009 may be 4 years old [and older], but almost all of my research puts the return at 3 years of age. So, we should be pleased that the 2006 offspring are returning in significantly higher numbers!
Separately, we're monitoring the counts very closely now, as we'll try to end the counting as soon as it looks like the migration is over, so as to not waste our counter's time.
But a look at 2006 shows 2 surges after some very low counts. And, perhaps we stopped just a little too soon in 2008.
We know that many of our counters are ringing in zeros right now, but if we didn't count them, we wouldn't know they were zero - and knowing it's zero is equally as important as knowing it was, say 100.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Disappointing Counts...
The bottom has fallen out of the numbers at Mill Pond starting Wednesday 04-29 through Sunday 05-03.
While there are a couple of counts not yet posted, most of the above days have less then 10 Herring counted for the entire day [that's just what we count, not what the total number of Herring for these days].
Don't know if there will be a second wind, as in prior years, but we'll keep counting for awhile yet.
We're now in Day 18 of the Run this year and the Run ended in prior years as follows:
While there are a couple of counts not yet posted, most of the above days have less then 10 Herring counted for the entire day [that's just what we count, not what the total number of Herring for these days].
Don't know if there will be a second wind, as in prior years, but we'll keep counting for awhile yet.
We're now in Day 18 of the Run this year and the Run ended in prior years as follows:
- 2008 - Day 36
- 2007 - Day 23
- 2006 - Day 27
- 2008 - 87%
- 2007 - 92%
- 2006 - 64%
- 2008 - 3,787
- 2007 - 1,448
- 2006 - 400
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Nothing Slips By OUR Counters...
William counting at 4:00 today at the sluiceway at Middle Pond.
We call this location The Jail House, because the grate that you see in the photo is the door from an old jail cell, recycled. It's on hinges and opens to allow work on the control boards.
This control gate manages the amount of water entering the sluiceway, which is shown below. This provides passage for the Herring from the Marstons Mills River - which is 1,100 ft distant - to Middle Pond.
This sluiceway was built in 1850 for $3,600 [that's about $73,000 today].
We call this location The Jail House, because the grate that you see in the photo is the door from an old jail cell, recycled. It's on hinges and opens to allow work on the control boards.
This control gate manages the amount of water entering the sluiceway, which is shown below. This provides passage for the Herring from the Marstons Mills River - which is 1,100 ft distant - to Middle Pond.
This sluiceway was built in 1850 for $3,600 [that's about $73,000 today].
Charts By Year
The charts below present the count volumes by day at Mill Pond for the last 3 years, and they don't show much consistency. We suspect that the second peak that occurs in about the forth week might be Blueback Herring [versus the earlier arriving Alewives] and this year we plan to catch and release a sampling to determine this. It's almost impossible to tell by looking into the water from above.
Top: 2008 ~ Middle: 2007 ~ Bottom: 2006
Steady Volume At Mill Pond
Through Day 7 of the run [04-25], the count is 24% greater than the average of the last three years.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Some Boring Numbers...
The only reasonable way to make a projection of how things are progressing while the Herring Run is active would be to look at prior years to see what "percent complete" those years were on the same relative day of the run.
So, for example, on 04-23-2009 we were in Day 5 of the run.
Below shows what percent complete we were on Day 5 in prior years. This is computed by dividing the fish counted through Day 5 by what was counted in total for that year. In the brackets is the projection of this year's count to date [through Day 5] using the percent done for each of those years:
A more reliable predictor may be to use a composite of all the prior years. This would be done by adding together the final total of all Herring counted in the prior years and dividing that into the sum of just [in this example] the first 5 days of all prior years.
When we do that [1,584 / 7,693] the resultant "Composite Percent Done" is 20.6%. With this year's cumulative count through Day 5 of 404, that projects out to 1,962 Herring to be counted this year [counted, not total Herring].
This 1,962 is 1,238 more than the average of all prior years counted though Day 5, or 37% better than that average. Note that these numbers will most likely fluctuate as this year's run progresses.
This approach is based upon precious little history [just 3 years now], but may prove to be more useful as we accumulate more data. There may be more precise methods as well with more data. And each year doesn't unfold like the prior year's either, with many factors affecting when and in what numbers the Herring arrive.
I do all of this calculating to answer the frequently asked question [which now seems solely directed at me]: "How's the run doing?" So, now I can say, for example, "Through Day 5, 37% better than the average of the last 3 years."
You can follow these numbers being calculated as the run progresses by clicking on the "schedules and counts" link at the right, then clicking on the "MillPond.YearToYear" tab.
Coming next year: Projecting what the total number that the Herring migration will be, not just the counts.
So, for example, on 04-23-2009 we were in Day 5 of the run.
Below shows what percent complete we were on Day 5 in prior years. This is computed by dividing the fish counted through Day 5 by what was counted in total for that year. In the brackets is the projection of this year's count to date [through Day 5] using the percent done for each of those years:
- 2008 - 15% [2,734]
- 2007 - 31% [1,303]
- 2006 - 37% [1,092]
A more reliable predictor may be to use a composite of all the prior years. This would be done by adding together the final total of all Herring counted in the prior years and dividing that into the sum of just [in this example] the first 5 days of all prior years.
When we do that [1,584 / 7,693] the resultant "Composite Percent Done" is 20.6%. With this year's cumulative count through Day 5 of 404, that projects out to 1,962 Herring to be counted this year [counted, not total Herring].
This 1,962 is 1,238 more than the average of all prior years counted though Day 5, or 37% better than that average. Note that these numbers will most likely fluctuate as this year's run progresses.
This approach is based upon precious little history [just 3 years now], but may prove to be more useful as we accumulate more data. There may be more precise methods as well with more data. And each year doesn't unfold like the prior year's either, with many factors affecting when and in what numbers the Herring arrive.
I do all of this calculating to answer the frequently asked question [which now seems solely directed at me]: "How's the run doing?" So, now I can say, for example, "Through Day 5, 37% better than the average of the last 3 years."
You can follow these numbers being calculated as the run progresses by clicking on the "schedules and counts" link at the right, then clicking on the "MillPond.YearToYear" tab.
Coming next year: Projecting what the total number that the Herring migration will be, not just the counts.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Increasing Volumes, But Still Early
Counted 82 herring in 10 minutes at Mill Pond at 5:00 today as the daily volumes continue to grow. The record for a 10 minute count was 241 on day 11 of the run last year [we're on day 7 today].
Most high counts occur between 3:00 - 5:00 [look at the hourly percents at the bottom of the spreadsheet linked to at "schedules and counts" at the right]. So if you want to watch the Herring at their best that would be the time. I'm going to stick my neck out and say the peak days will be April 29 through May 1.
All counts have been scheduled through 05-23. That's 35 days in total, counting 9 times a day at 2 locations for a total of 630 counts.
We have a couple of counters that we're holding in reserve to cover unexpected problems, so while a couple of weeks ago we were concerned about have enough people, we're in great shape now. Yesterday I found Lorna at the Mill Pond Herring Run - she's going to count 80 times!
Most high counts occur between 3:00 - 5:00 [look at the hourly percents at the bottom of the spreadsheet linked to at "schedules and counts" at the right]. So if you want to watch the Herring at their best that would be the time. I'm going to stick my neck out and say the peak days will be April 29 through May 1.
All counts have been scheduled through 05-23. That's 35 days in total, counting 9 times a day at 2 locations for a total of 630 counts.
We have a couple of counters that we're holding in reserve to cover unexpected problems, so while a couple of weeks ago we were concerned about have enough people, we're in great shape now. Yesterday I found Lorna at the Mill Pond Herring Run - she's going to count 80 times!
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Early Numbers Disappointing Vs Prior Years
While we're still very early into the run, here's where we are after 4 days compared to the same relative day in prior years:
Note that these numbers are just what has been counted, not a projection of the total Herring that has passed to date.
- 2009 = 266
- 2008 = 652 [2009 is down 59% from this]
- 2007 = 485 [2009 is down 45% from this]
- 2006 = 266 [strangely, exactly the same]
Note that these numbers are just what has been counted, not a projection of the total Herring that has passed to date.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Notice To Counters...
A reminder that only some counters have received a schedule as yet and that we are [right now] just scheduled through 04-25 [with a couple of counters out longer then that].
If you haven't yet received an email instructing you to count, you won't be counting until at least 04-26.
Schedules will go out later today or tomorrow, but they may be just for the next couple of weeks, with an update to follow. We have to approach the scheduling this incremental way as a number of folks [~10] can't count this year for one reason or another and we are scrambling to find counters for the later weeks.
If you haven't yet received an email instructing you to count, you won't be counting until at least 04-26.
Schedules will go out later today or tomorrow, but they may be just for the next couple of weeks, with an update to follow. We have to approach the scheduling this incremental way as a number of folks [~10] can't count this year for one reason or another and we are scrambling to find counters for the later weeks.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Emergency Repairs To Sluiceway
Yesterday [April 20], we had to make emergency repairs to the sluiceway at Middle Pond. A washout had breached the sidewall causing the soil on the bank to wash into the sluiceway.
Adjustments are being made to the water entering the sluiceway. This is a trial and error process that may take a few days to get running right.
But there were hundreds of Herring heading making it through OK, traveling onward to Middle Pond.
Not enough counts in to draw any preliminary guesses from, but some of the numbers look pretty good. The first few days are always a little sporadic.
Adjustments are being made to the water entering the sluiceway. This is a trial and error process that may take a few days to get running right.
But there were hundreds of Herring heading making it through OK, traveling onward to Middle Pond.
Not enough counts in to draw any preliminary guesses from, but some of the numbers look pretty good. The first few days are always a little sporadic.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Notice To Counters...
Only some counters have been scheduled and they all have been contacted by email today.
We've scheduled out only through 04-25, so if you haven't received an email today about counting this week, then you won't be counting until next Monday [04-26] at the earliest.
Additional schedules will go out in a few days and they may be also be only through a certain date in the future.
The reason for this approach is that I need to use those people who have already completed their paperwork to fill all the current counting needs and then fill later weeks with the late paperwork and the new counters.
We're looking for additional help to count in future weeks.
We've scheduled out only through 04-25, so if you haven't received an email today about counting this week, then you won't be counting until next Monday [04-26] at the earliest.
Additional schedules will go out in a few days and they may be also be only through a certain date in the future.
The reason for this approach is that I need to use those people who have already completed their paperwork to fill all the current counting needs and then fill later weeks with the late paperwork and the new counters.
We're looking for additional help to count in future weeks.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
They've Arrived!!
At 2:00 today, Herring in good quantity at Mill Pond.
Note To Our Counters:
We'll start counting Sunday morning [April 19].
We'll use the standby counters for the first day or two and then all other schedules will be invoked [though you all may not be counting right away].
Please watch for an email that your schedule has been completed!
Note To Our Counters:
We'll start counting Sunday morning [April 19].
We'll use the standby counters for the first day or two and then all other schedules will be invoked [though you all may not be counting right away].
Please watch for an email that your schedule has been completed!
The Sentinels Of Mill Pond
This is the first day the gulls have been here, in position and waiting. A sure sign the Herring are coming very soon, perhaps this afternoon or tomorrow.
Below is Haley, who stopped by for a look today, and also some visitors from Falmouth pausing on their way down Cape.
Below is Haley, who stopped by for a look today, and also some visitors from Falmouth pausing on their way down Cape.
Friday, April 17, 2009
Still Nothing To Report
Today is a beautiful day...
The sky is blue...
The air has that fresh smell of spring...
The sluiceway has been repaired...
The water temperature is just right...
The counters are standing by...
The osprey are anxious...
The gulls are waiting too...
Yours truly is checking 3-4 times a day...
People are stopping by Mill Pond, looking, waiting...
Everyone reading this Blog is wondering too...
Where ARE they???
.
The sky is blue...
The air has that fresh smell of spring...
The sluiceway has been repaired...
The water temperature is just right...
The counters are standing by...
The osprey are anxious...
The gulls are waiting too...
Yours truly is checking 3-4 times a day...
People are stopping by Mill Pond, looking, waiting...
Everyone reading this Blog is wondering too...
Where ARE they???
.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Lonely At The Ladder
Nothing to report, water at 58F at 3:00 this day.
A Note To Our Counters:
We haven't sent out schedules yet as we didn't want to begin the counting until the Herring started [pretty good idea, huh?].
We have a couple of flexible people that are standing by to count on short notice and we'll use them to cover the first couple of days when the migration starts. [Yes - they should get a life]
As soon as it starts we'll get your schedule out to you. So this means that you won't have to count until at least a day or two after you see a post here that says we've started. Sorry to keep things up in the air, but this is the best use of people's time.
Also, we've had more than a couple of folks that will be unable to count this year and we're going to have to find replacements. We do recruiting at the run at Mill Pond while it's active and have had good success finding additional help that way.
But this means that those who have already submitted their preferences and availability will be "front-loaded" into the first couple of weeks [instead of spread out over the entire run] and the new recruits will be used in later weeks.
BTW: Don't be afraid to ask someone you know to volunteer to help in the counting!
A Note To Our Counters:
We haven't sent out schedules yet as we didn't want to begin the counting until the Herring started [pretty good idea, huh?].
We have a couple of flexible people that are standing by to count on short notice and we'll use them to cover the first couple of days when the migration starts. [Yes - they should get a life]
As soon as it starts we'll get your schedule out to you. So this means that you won't have to count until at least a day or two after you see a post here that says we've started. Sorry to keep things up in the air, but this is the best use of people's time.
Also, we've had more than a couple of folks that will be unable to count this year and we're going to have to find replacements. We do recruiting at the run at Mill Pond while it's active and have had good success finding additional help that way.
But this means that those who have already submitted their preferences and availability will be "front-loaded" into the first couple of weeks [instead of spread out over the entire run] and the new recruits will be used in later weeks.
BTW: Don't be afraid to ask someone you know to volunteer to help in the counting!
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Fishless In The Mills
Checked at 11:00, 2:00 & 4:00 - water temperature was mid 50's+, but still no Herring.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Emptiness At Mill Pond...
Today at 12:45 the temperature was 47, not a Herring anywhere...
Checked yesterday at 12:00 and 3:30. The temperature was 48-49, with no fish in sight.
Checked yesterday at 12:00 and 3:30. The temperature was 48-49, with no fish in sight.
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Friday, April 10, 2009
Nothing New...
Checked at 10:30 and 12:30: water temperature is good [55], but no Herring.
Traveled further down-stream to some gathering pools, no activity.
Traveled further down-stream to some gathering pools, no activity.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
No Herring In Sight
We've been checking several times a day now, as the water temperature at Mill Pond has been in the mid to high 50's, which is above the 51 that the Alewives like.
But this reading is at Mill Pond and doesn't reflect what it is down-stream, like at Prince Cove.
A reliable precursor is the screeching of the aptly name Herring Gull. The only time they're heard at Mill Pond is when the Herring are migrating. These gulls know the locations where the fish are most vulnerable [where the water is shallow] and can be seen and heard fighting over the good spots on the first day the Herring arrive.
So far, we have 38 people that have enrolled to count this year. We haven't scheduled them as yet [will in the next day or so] as we don't want to waste their time until the Herring are running. We have a handful of counters that are ready on short notice to cover the first couple of days when they show.
We will always need help in counting and other tasks, so if you're interested or know of anyone that is, click on the link at the right.
We'll be updating this blog on a regular basis now as the Herring are due any day. Their arrival dates in prior years were:
But this reading is at Mill Pond and doesn't reflect what it is down-stream, like at Prince Cove.
A reliable precursor is the screeching of the aptly name Herring Gull. The only time they're heard at Mill Pond is when the Herring are migrating. These gulls know the locations where the fish are most vulnerable [where the water is shallow] and can be seen and heard fighting over the good spots on the first day the Herring arrive.
So far, we have 38 people that have enrolled to count this year. We haven't scheduled them as yet [will in the next day or so] as we don't want to waste their time until the Herring are running. We have a handful of counters that are ready on short notice to cover the first couple of days when they show.
We will always need help in counting and other tasks, so if you're interested or know of anyone that is, click on the link at the right.
We'll be updating this blog on a regular basis now as the Herring are due any day. Their arrival dates in prior years were:
- 2008 - April 10
- 2007 - April 20
- 2006 - April 12
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
A-h-h-h! Spring Is In The Air!
We're starting the planning process for counting herring for 2009 and will have a meeting Tuesday, February 17, 2009 at 4:00, at the Burgess House, 559 Route 149, Marstons Mills, MA. [map]
This meeting is not specifically on the Counting Project, but more about checking the river for any impediments and resolving them before the run. All are welcome to attend, especially if you'd like to help in the [light] physical work that may need to be done to prepare for the migration.
The Massachusetts Marine Fisheries Advisory Commission has continued the moratorium on the taking of herring though 2011 [story here].
We'll be running the count pretty much the same as 2008 with the collection of some additional data, like water temperature.
We're always looking for counters [we did 684 counts last year]. If interested click here to get more information.
This meeting is not specifically on the Counting Project, but more about checking the river for any impediments and resolving them before the run. All are welcome to attend, especially if you'd like to help in the [light] physical work that may need to be done to prepare for the migration.
The Massachusetts Marine Fisheries Advisory Commission has continued the moratorium on the taking of herring though 2011 [story here].
We'll be running the count pretty much the same as 2008 with the collection of some additional data, like water temperature.
We're always looking for counters [we did 684 counts last year]. If interested click here to get more information.
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