Continued Strong Volume And Great Projection!

The counts have been quite strong and steady over the last few days.

So, with my regular disclaimer about reading too much into these projections, here's how the counts to-date at Mill Pond could be interpreted:

Assuming a "Percent Done" of 56% [where we were on Day 11 in 2007] and with a cumulative count through Day 11 in 2008 of 2,485, that projects to a total count for 2008 of 4,424 or 2,683 more fish counted [in total] in 2008 over 2007, an increase of 154%.

These are projections of counts only [not of the total fish]. And I'm using my formula for forecasting - which is just that - my formula. So, it will be interesting when 2008 is all counted to see how accurate my projections were during the count.

In my next Post I'll have charts for these numbers and it will clearly show the change in the "curve" of 2006 compared to 2007: if you look at the spreadsheet for the Mill Pond.YearToYear numbers [link at top right], you'll see that on Day 11 in 2006 we were 55% Done, very close to the Day 11 for 2007 of 56% Done. But if you look ahead you'll see that on Day 21 they were 68% and 99% respectively.

So this shows the dangers of trying to do these projections: on Day 21 in 2006 we had about another 1/3 to go, in 2007 we were almost finished.

When we have more history, we could combine the historical activity and have a "blended" curve, but I can think of a few problems with that. Any ideas about that from anyone out there? Is there anyone out there?