Counting To Cease May 17

The daily counts are down to a trickle and there's little sense in counting any longer, so we'll stop at the end of the day Saturday May 17.

Many thanks to all that have helped in the program this year and it's gone very smoothly - a credit to all of you that did the work!

I'll be sending a newsletter out recapping what's transpired and if I've communicated to you via email in the past then you'll receive it automatically.

If you'd like to get on the email list for the newsletter go here, then click on the link beneath Herring Counting Project, complete the form and put "newsletter only" in the comments section.

I'll post the final projections here as soon as I receive them back from the state [in about a month or so] but the regular postings on this blog are just about done for the year.

See you in March 2009!

Winding down...

Volume is really trailing off now and we'll perhaps stop counting the end of this week or there abouts.

Up And Down Counts

Volumes are up and down on a day-to-day basis.

At Mill Pond there was a spike on Wednesday May 7 of at least 215 counted [a couple of counts not yet posted] and then a big drop-off the next day down to at least 78 [also a couple of counts not yet posted].

It hard to see a trend here - it always is when you look too closely...

They're B-a-c-k!

An ad-hoc count taken at Mill Pond Station today at 4pm yielded 61 herring in 10 minutes, which is three times the median count taken for this time of day through the first 18 Days of the Run.

And although some counts haven't yet been posted, 61 almost matches the total that was counted for all of the times we counted in the last 7 days.

So, we'll be counting for a while longer...

Huge Drop-Off In Volume

Things seem to have came to a screeching halt on Sunday, April 27th.

If you look at the spreadsheet with the numbers for the run [the link at the right at 'Monitor the progress of the run'], you'll see that the counts at Mill Pond Station dropped from 100's a day to almost none, and then with a small pickup in volume a couple of days later.

This could be due heavy rainfall and cool temps we've had. I've been looking at historical patterns on these points to see if there is any correlation to that and this year volumes and in prior years as well. If you're interested, the site Weather Underground maintains some very detailed statistics - see Cape Cod Airfield's numbers.

I've also done some work on the velocity of the water traveling through the pipe under Route 28. The students at Barnstable Horace Mann Charter School did some work on this last year and the concern is that this could be an impediment to the migration. This velocity increases significantly during periods of heavy precipitation.

We'll see what the next few days tell us...

Attention All Counters!!

River Day will be held Sunday, May 4th at Burgess Park on Route 149 in Marstons Mills and you can view the schedule of the day's events here. We invite everyone to visit us at our table to learn more about the counting program, the herring migration and the Marstons Mills River in general.

AND, to reward all of those who have counted in 2008, you'll receive lunch on us! Just pick up a coupon good for the lunch at River Day that's put on by the Liberty Hall Club.

AND, all who have counted for us in 2008 are eligible to enter the Herring Counting Contest. Just fill out the free entry form and guess the total number of herring. This total is what the projection of the counts will be, NOT the total of the counts we've taken. The person with the closest guess wins $250.00! [in case of a tie, the prize will be split].

If you are a counter and can't attend Sunday you can still enter the contest up until May 30, when the counting ends - just contact me.

This contest is open only to those who have counted in 2008, so your chances of winning are great - and they'll be even better for some other counter if you don't enter!

The counting is going very smoothly with 324 counts taken [6,772 herring] across both counting stations - and only 2 counts missed so far.

Through Day 18 of the run, at just Mill Pond, we've counted 3,214 more fish than last year or a 185% increase. [These numbers are the fish counted - not the projections of those counts].

However, volume is decreasing each day and it's hard to guess when it will end. In 2006 it dropped way off on Day 27 and in 2007 it did the same on Day 21. [See the link at the top right to see the counts and numbers over the past couple of years].

Continued Strong Volume And Great Projection!

The counts have been quite strong and steady over the last few days.

So, with my regular disclaimer about reading too much into these projections, here's how the counts to-date at Mill Pond could be interpreted:

Assuming a "Percent Done" of 56% [where we were on Day 11 in 2007] and with a cumulative count through Day 11 in 2008 of 2,485, that projects to a total count for 2008 of 4,424 or 2,683 more fish counted [in total] in 2008 over 2007, an increase of 154%.

These are projections of counts only [not of the total fish]. And I'm using my formula for forecasting - which is just that - my formula. So, it will be interesting when 2008 is all counted to see how accurate my projections were during the count.

In my next Post I'll have charts for these numbers and it will clearly show the change in the "curve" of 2006 compared to 2007: if you look at the spreadsheet for the Mill Pond.YearToYear numbers [link at top right], you'll see that on Day 11 in 2006 we were 55% Done, very close to the Day 11 for 2007 of 56% Done. But if you look ahead you'll see that on Day 21 they were 68% and 99% respectively.

So this shows the dangers of trying to do these projections: on Day 21 in 2006 we had about another 1/3 to go, in 2007 we were almost finished.

When we have more history, we could combine the historical activity and have a "blended" curve, but I can think of a few problems with that. Any ideas about that from anyone out there? Is there anyone out there?

Huge Numbers Today!!

The 4Pm count at Mill Pond yielded 241 herring in a 10 minute period - a record since we've started counting in 2006 and almost twice the one set just yesterday.

Al Baker reports that things seem a bit smoother at the Middle Pond station where there had been issues the last few days with the herring backing up trying to make the last step into Middle Pond.

Four Osprey were circling Mill Pond at 4Pm.

The Count Goes On!

The counting is going very smoothly with 24 counters working right now and another 3-4 in the works to count in later weeks. We still need help if you can spare 10 minutes a day for 15-20 days [you can pick your times].

As of today we have about 275 counts that are not covered [see link at top right, then the columns 'Not Covered' and 'Cumulative Not']. What we don't know now is when the run will stop so we'll schedule through the end of May and then call everyone off when it ends.

Above is Jackie [5] of Cotuit who was commandeered to help count when she happened by the Mill Pond Herring Run on April 19 at 1PM with her mother and her sister Sammy [7], who did the first five minutes [below].

Most of our counters are a quite a bit older [these kids were carefully supervised by your's truly who had that scheduled count] and most are from the Mills with several from Cotuit, Osterville and West Barnstable.

The average counter takes 20-25 counts over the 6 week counting period.

This afternoon at 3pm [April 19] we counted 126 in a 10 minute period, which was the largest count since we started counting in 2006. The next highest was 109 on May 5, 2007.

The Osprey were expertly working Mill Pond today, circling and diving for herring, then flying south towards Prince Cove where I've heard they are nesting. They are here most afternoons now.

Volume Up 42% Over 2007!

The actual counts [not projections] through day 5 of the run are 42% higher than last year: 772 vs 545. And back in 2006, there were a total of just 266 through day 5. And there are still a couple of counts for day 5 of this year that have not been posted as yet - but they are expected to be small as they are in the morning.

This isn't predictive of the entire run, just the actual counts to-date. There's no indication at this point that this will be representative of what will happen in future days or how long the run will last. Also, projections made in the first few days can be volatile - like were we right about when day 1 occurred - this year and last?

This volatility smooths out as we get more days under our belt, but just the same it's encouraging...

The counts are posted in a spreadsheet that you can see by clicking on the link at the top right of this Blog. In there you'll find a tab for each counting location [Mill Pond and Middle Pond] and a year-to-year summary for Mill Pond [this is the first year for Middle Pond Counting - no prior year numbers yet].

Whooops!

Just found out that people who signed up to help with the counting had their offer drift off into cyberspace!

If you offered to help count at MarstonsMills.org before April 15, 2008 please do so again.

My apologies...

We should have some updated counts in a day or so, been busy scheduling those who responded late. Expect things to really pop later this week when temperatures go up.

Strong early volume...

Several signs are indicating a strong run for this year, compared to 2007 and 2006.

It's way too early to be certain, but the first few days have been the strongest in volume for the comparable period of the last two years. And the water temperature is still on the cool side with lots of cloudy weather that keeps it that way.

I've been a little slow getting numbers posted as we have several new counters still learning the process [but not Mary M, oh no] and I don't want to project a day unless I have like 6 or 7 counts.

Look for updated counts at the link at the at the top right of this page. In that spreadsheet are tabs for both locations [Mill Pond and Middle Pond].

The counters have been scheduled only through April 19 as I haven't heard back from several people yet and I'm getting a little concerned about having enough counters. I've "front-loaded" those that have replied hoping to find more counters for later weeks.

I'll be at Mill Pond tomorrow afternoon as there should be plenty of herring and plenty of people watching them [and me to trying to recruit them].

If you would like to help or know someone who would, please let me know! See the info at MarstonsMills.org.

Also, you can subscribe to this Blog and get each post sent to you. Click on the link at the very bottom of the blog to get updates to this Blog sent to your reader.

Herring have arrived!

We've been monitoring the run at Mill Pond several times a day and the first arrivals were seen this morning and with a noticeable volume.

Water temperature is 55F, which is just about right, with today's sunshine doing the trick.

We've started the counting operation as of mid-day.

The Harbinger of Herring...

For the first time this year the extremely reliable precursor of the arrival of herring was spotted on Mill Pond - the aptly named Herring Gull!

Since I live beside Mill Pond and observe it year-round, I can tell you with certainty that the only time they are here is when the herring are running.

You can find them in two locations: at the top of the ladder where they just sit waiting for a herring to pass through the control gate [they fight over this spot] and also at the northerly end of the pond where the river enters - here a delta makes the water very shallow - and they just stand in the water waiting for a fish to go by.

Since the herring are most likely already in Prince Cove [scouts have been spotted just below Route 28] the gulls probably know this and since they aren't good at taking fish from open water, they come to Mill Pond and just wait for some easy pickings.

There were no herring in the run this morning, but I'd bet they are coming very soon...

The gulls, however, are completely upstaged by the Osprey. They put on an incredible show one afternoon last April when five were fishing at the same time at Mill Pond. It's amazing to watch them circle overhead and then when they spot a fish go into a feet-first dive into the water and then come up with a fish in their talons.

Stay posted here and we'll let you know when they're working Mill Pond this year.

Update: The water temperature here at 4:00pm was 44F - with a long ways to go before the herring will come.

Scouts have been spotted...

Al Baker [our own scout] reported this afternoon that there are a few herring present in the basin just south of Route 28 [at Route 149]. These herring are scouts themselves and are 'testing the waters' as they say.

We've planned a contingency to start counting this weekend if need be, but with the cold weather we've seen lately it's unlikely that they'll start in the next few days.

We'll be checking the water temperature regularly starting Friday April, 4th as well. Does anyone know at what water temperature we can expect some migration?

There's a new block on the top right of this Blog where you can monitor the progress of the herring run. For each of the two counting stations there is the Master Schedule that shows which counter is scheduled for which slot and also the Counting Results. These are the actual spreadsheets being used in the project. When you view them they'll say they are updated every 5 minutes, but for the time being [maybe next year] they don't reflect the counts as posted by the counters. And the Master Schedule shows just the counter's number and not their name [but we know who they are...].

The enrollment of counters has been progressing okay but and we're a little behind schedule with just 22 enrolled to-date for this year and with just Emory Anderson completing the preferences on his spreadsheet. You can see an example of a spreadsheet here.

We're waiting to hear back from the 30 or so others that have been contacted.

Where are you?

Preparing for the 2008 Count

We gearing up for the 2008 Count and are looking for additional counters as we plan to count at two locations this year.

If you'd like to help out, please visit MarstonsMills.org and click on the link Herring Counting Project.

More to follow soon...