The 2006 Run: Day By Day

This chart shows the 2006 herring run, with the daily counts projected to a daily total.

So if the overall trend is the same this year as it was in 2006, that means that the peak day this year will be 4 days after the first sighting.

The first sighting this year was on April 21, 2007. So therefore, the peak this year should occur about 4 days after that, or April 25/26 [just guessing, of course...].

Also, in 2006 50% of the total number of herring arrived in the first 5 days of the run.

If these trends are the same this year as last, and if you knew the daily counts this year and last, you could do a projection for this year, couldn't you? Yeah, you could, but we're not going to post the daily counts anywhere, because...

All of these numbers are intended to torment those that are planning to enter the contest to guess the total herring count this year. You can enter that contest on River Day [May 20, 2007] and win $250!

We'll toss out more help later on with additional numbers that will be totally useless by themselves or in conjunction with anything else we've already told you...