Nothing Slips By OUR Counters...

William counting at 4:00 today at the sluiceway at Middle Pond.

We call this location The Jail House, because the grate that you see in the photo is the door from an old jail cell, recycled. It's on hinges and opens to allow work on the control boards.



This control gate manages the amount of water entering the sluiceway, which is shown below. This provides passage for the Herring from the Marstons Mills River - which is 1,100 ft distant - to Middle Pond.

This sluiceway was built in 1850 for $3,600 [that's about $73,000 today].

Charts By Year

The charts below present the count volumes by day at Mill Pond for the last 3 years, and they don't show much consistency. We suspect that the second peak that occurs in about the forth week might be Blueback Herring [versus the earlier arriving Alewives] and this year we plan to catch and release a sampling to determine this. It's almost impossible to tell by looking into the water from above.

Top: 2008 ~ Middle: 2007 ~ Bottom: 2006

Steady Volume At Mill Pond

Through Day 7 of the run [04-25], the count is 24% greater than the average of the last three years.

Some Boring Numbers...

The only reasonable way to make a projection of how things are progressing while the Herring Run is active would be to look at prior years to see what "percent complete" those years were on the same relative day of the run.

So, for example, on 04-23-2009 we were in Day 5 of the run.

Below shows what percent complete we were on Day 5 in prior years. This is computed by dividing the fish counted through Day 5 by what was counted in total for that year. In the brackets is the projection of this year's count to date [through Day 5] using the percent done for each of those years:

• 2008 - 15% [2,734]
• 2007 - 31% [1,303]
• 2006 - 37% [1,092]

This shows quite a range, which demonstrates how wrong you can be when you have such little history to base projections upon.

A more reliable predictor may be to use a composite of all the prior years. This would be done by adding together the final total of all Herring counted in the prior years and dividing that into the sum of just [in this example] the first 5 days of all prior years.

When we do that [1,584 / 7,693] the resultant "Composite Percent Done" is 20.6%. With this year's cumulative count through Day 5 of 404, that projects out to 1,962 Herring to be counted this year [counted, not total Herring].

This 1,962 is 1,238 more than the average of all prior years counted though Day 5, or 37% better than that average. Note that these numbers will most likely fluctuate as this year's run progresses.

This approach is based upon precious little history [just 3 years now], but may prove to be more useful as we accumulate more data. There may be more precise methods as well with more data. And each year doesn't unfold like the prior year's either, with many factors affecting when and in what numbers the Herring arrive.

I do all of this calculating to answer the frequently asked question [which now seems solely directed at me]: "How's the run doing?" So, now I can say, for example, "Through Day 5, 37% better than the average of the last 3 years."

You can follow these numbers being calculated as the run progresses by clicking on the "schedules and counts" link at the right, then clicking on the "MillPond.YearToYear" tab.

Coming next year: Projecting what the total number that the Herring migration will be, not just the counts.

Increasing Volumes, But Still Early

Counted 82 herring in 10 minutes at Mill Pond at 5:00 today as the daily volumes continue to grow. The record for a 10 minute count was 241 on day 11 of the run last year [we're on day 7 today].

Most high counts occur between 3:00 - 5:00 [look at the hourly percents at the bottom of the spreadsheet linked to at "schedules and counts" at the right]. So if you want to watch the Herring at their best that would be the time. I'm going to stick my neck out and say the peak days will be April 29 through May 1.

All counts have been scheduled through 05-23. That's 35 days in total, counting 9 times a day at 2 locations for a total of 630 counts.

We have a couple of counters that we're holding in reserve to cover unexpected problems, so while a couple of weeks ago we were concerned about have enough people, we're in great shape now. Yesterday I found Lorna at the Mill Pond Herring Run - she's going to count 80 times!

Early Numbers Disappointing Vs Prior Years

While we're still very early into the run, here's where we are after 4 days compared to the same relative day in prior years:

• 2009 = 266
  
• 2008 = 652 [2009 is down 59% from this]
  
• 2007 = 485 [2009 is down 45% from this]
• 2006 = 266 [strangely, exactly the same]

Be careful about drawing any conclusions from these numbers, as they are most likely going to change in the upcoming days.

Note that these numbers are just what has been counted, not a projection of the total Herring that has passed to date.

Notice To Counters...

A reminder that only some counters have received a schedule as yet and that we are [right now] just scheduled through 04-25 [with a couple of counters out longer then that].

If you haven't yet received an email instructing you to count, you won't be counting until at least 04-26.

Schedules will go out later today or tomorrow, but they may be just for the next couple of weeks, with an update to follow. We have to approach the scheduling this incremental way as a number of folks [~10] can't count this year for one reason or another and we are scrambling to find counters for the later weeks.

Emergency Repairs To Sluiceway

Yesterday [April 20], we had to make emergency repairs to the sluiceway at Middle Pond. A washout had breached the sidewall causing the soil on the bank to wash into the sluiceway.

Adjustments are being made to the water entering the sluiceway. This is a trial and error process that may take a few days to get running right.

But there were hundreds of Herring heading making it through OK, traveling onward to Middle Pond.

Not enough counts in to draw any preliminary guesses from, but some of the numbers look pretty good. The first few days are always a little sporadic.

Notice To Counters...

Only some counters have been scheduled and they all have been contacted by email today.

We've scheduled out only through 04-25, so if you haven't received an email today about counting this week, then you won't be counting until next Monday [04-26] at the earliest.

Additional schedules will go out in a few days and they may be also be only through a certain date in the future.

The reason for this approach is that I need to use those people who have already completed their paperwork to fill all the current counting needs and then fill later weeks with the late paperwork and the new counters.

We're looking for additional help to count in future weeks.

They've Arrived!!

At 2:00 today, Herring in good quantity at Mill Pond.

Note To Our Counters:
We'll start counting Sunday morning [April 19].

We'll use the standby counters for the first day or two and then all other schedules will be invoked [though you all may not be counting right away].

Please watch for an email that your schedule has been completed!

The Sentinels Of Mill Pond

This is the first day the gulls have been here, in position and waiting. A sure sign the Herring are coming very soon, perhaps this afternoon or tomorrow.

Below is Haley, who stopped by for a look today, and also some visitors from Falmouth pausing on their way down Cape.

Still Nothing To Report

Today is a beautiful day...
The sky is blue...
The air has that fresh smell of spring...
The sluiceway has been repaired...
The water temperature is just right...
The counters are standing by...
The osprey are anxious...
The gulls are waiting too...
Yours truly is checking 3-4 times a day...
People are stopping by Mill Pond, looking, waiting...
Everyone reading this Blog is wondering too...

Where ARE they???
.

Lonely At The Ladder

Nothing to report, water at 58F at 3:00 this day.

A Note To Our Counters:
We haven't sent out schedules yet as we didn't want to begin the counting until the Herring started [pretty good idea, huh?].

We have a couple of flexible people that are standing by to count on short notice and we'll use them to cover the first couple of days when the migration starts. [Yes - they should get a life]

As soon as it starts we'll get your schedule out to you. So this means that you won't have to count until at least a day or two after you see a post here that says we've started. Sorry to keep things up in the air, but this is the best use of people's time.

Also, we've had more than a couple of folks that will be unable to count this year and we're going to have to find replacements. We do recruiting at the run at Mill Pond while it's active and have had good success finding additional help that way.

But this means that those who have already submitted their preferences and availability will be "front-loaded" into the first couple of weeks [instead of spread out over the entire run] and the new recruits will be used in later weeks.

BTW: Don't be afraid to ask someone you know to volunteer to help in the counting!

Fishless In The Mills

Checked at 11:00, 2:00 & 4:00 - water temperature was mid 50's+, but still no Herring.

Emptiness At Mill Pond...

Today at 12:45 the temperature was 47, not a Herring anywhere...

Checked yesterday at 12:00 and 3:30. The temperature was 48-49, with no fish in sight.

Nothing!

Checked Mill Pond today at 11:00, 2:00 & 4:00. Water temp was 47-49, no Herring observed.

Nothing New...

Checked at 10:30 and 12:30: water temperature is good [55], but no Herring.

Traveled further down-stream to some gathering pools, no activity.

No Herring In Sight

We've been checking several times a day now, as the water temperature at Mill Pond has been in the mid to high 50's, which is above the 51 that the Alewives like.

But this reading is at Mill Pond and doesn't reflect what it is down-stream, like at Prince Cove.

A reliable precursor is the screeching of the aptly name Herring Gull. The only time they're heard at Mill Pond is when the Herring are migrating. These gulls know the locations where the fish are most vulnerable [where the water is shallow] and can be seen and heard fighting over the good spots on the first day the Herring arrive.

So far, we have 38 people that have enrolled to count this year. We haven't scheduled them as yet [will in the next day or so] as we don't want to waste their time until the Herring are running. We have a handful of counters that are ready on short notice to cover the first couple of days when they show.

We will always need help in counting and other tasks, so if you're interested or know of anyone that is, click on the link at the right.

We'll be updating this blog on a regular basis now as the Herring are due any day. Their arrival dates in prior years were:

• 2008 - April 10
• 2007 - April 20
• 2006 - April 12