Scheduling Process Started

Everyone who has helped out in the Herring Counting Program in prior years was asked if they could help count again this year. This email went out late yesterday and we've have received 15 replies so far, which is good!

We'll be using the same Google Docs spreadsheets for scheduling/counting as we did in 2010, with things being a little easier this year as the counter will not have to have a Google account or sign-in to access their spreadsheet.

As we did last year, we'll use the early responders and schedule just the first couple of weeks. Then as more people respond we'll schedule the rest of the run.

What Happened In 2010?
I'll gather and chart some statistics sometime over the next few weeks, but my posts at the time [April 2010] highlighted my concern about the volume and velocity of the water traveling through the pipe under Route 28 from Mill Pond. This was due to the very heavy rains we had in late March and early April, which I feel was too much for the herring to overcome.

The flaw in the design of the herring run at Mill Pond is that while there is a ladder to allow the herring to climb the change in elevation, there's no way to control the volume [and therefore the velocity] of water that travels through the pipe used by the fish. And the pipe is 175+ long and there's no pool for the herring to rest/regroup.

Over the winter I did a bit of research about the velocity that herring can overcome and what they do when confronted with this [or by some other obstruction]. That will be the topic of a later post.

We're going to watch this element of the run this year very closely. If you want to help out in this velocity testing, please let me know [we need someone at both ends of the pipe]. We'll do this only if we get heavy rains, but I'll be keeping a daily log of the height of the water traveling through the pipe.

If there's an engineer out there who could tell me how to figure this out [with the diameter of pipe, inches of water, change in elevation, and whatever other input might be needed] I'd appreciate it - as that would be much easier then the current method of timing ping-pong balls...

Preparing For 2011 Count

We'll be starting the process of gearing up for the count in the next two weeks.

We'll contact all of those who have counted in the past, and the procedure for counting will be essentially the same as last year.

We're always looking for help in counting, if you are interested or you know of someone who is, please contact us here. If they are not computer-literate, they can still help out as we have folks who can be their cyberbuddy and do the online work for them.


This picture, which was taken today, is of one of the swans who is strangely wandering on the grass beside Mill Pond [they almost never leave the water].

It's one of the three cygnets that were born last May and has wintered in the pond.

In March, the adults start thinking about a new brood and they literally kick-out last year's crop before they start building a new nest.

This one on the lawn probably thinks his parents were 'just kidding' when they chased it out, but if things happen as in prior years, its sayonara!

The young will live together in a colony of sometimes 100's of swans [there's a small one in Popponesset Bay] and when they reach maturity in 3-4 years, will pair up and find a place of their own.

Counting Over for 2010 - With Disappointing Results

[Note: This post was republished today as there was data issue with our blog account. It was originally posted a couple of days prior].

We ended the counting for 2010 at the end of the day Tuesday May, 4th.

The total number of herring that were counted for this year is shown below, with the final counts from the prior years included as well:

2010 ~ 478
2009 ~ 1,332
2008 ~ 5,232
2007 ~ 1,741
2006 ~ 719


Clearly, 2010 was a very disappointing herring migration.

Again, I'd like to thank all who counted this year. I know it wasn't much fun with all of those zeros. But as I told many of you who came to River Day last Sunday,"zero is better then nothing" as we at least know what has occurred.

We'll post the total projection from these counts when we get that number back from the state. And if we can get them, some comparisons with the results from other runs.

A Second Wave, But Nothing Major...

This past week has shown a 'second wave' - a distinctive event we've seen in prior years as well. After 6 days of counting just 15 herring, then there were 5 days with a total of 139.

This may well be an initial migration of alewives that is followed a couple of weeks later by a migration of blueback herring. Perhaps next year we'll attempt to identify these.

Total herring counted at Mill Pond through Day # 24 of the run for this and prior years are:

2010 ~ 437
2009 ~ 1,332
2008 ~ 4,647
2007 ~ 1,737
2006 ~ 598

Note: The above numbers are just the fish we counted and not a projection of the total herring.

If you attend River Day [Sunday, May 2, 2010, 10:00 ~ 3:00, Burgess Park, Route 149. Marstons Mills] we'll have the counts of this year and prior years on display at the Marstons Mills River Watershed Association's table under the tent.

Also at 11:00 there will be a tour/talk at the Mill Pond Herring Run and another at the Upper Flume at Middle Pond at 11:30.

See the complete River Day program here.

Note to our counters: be sure to stop by our table for a coupon for a free lunch!

And please post your counts as soon as you can so we can get a read of what is going on. We may be close to ending our counting for this year.

Who Ever Said 'No News Is Good News'?

It's been a week since my last post and it isn't good news...

To date at Mill Pond we've taken 142 10 minute counts. Of those, 92 counts were 0 [63%], 45 counts had 1-10 fish and just 5 counts had more than 10 fish for a total of 287 fish counted through Day # 18 of the run.

Counts in prior years through Day # 18 were:

2009 ~ 1,278
2008 ~ 4,575
2007 ~ 1,596
2006 ~ 464

While there was some concern about the velocity of the water in the pipe under Route 28, several views of the lagoon south of that pipe don't show any fish congregating - that is, the heavy rain we had doesn't appear to be an obstacle.

Note to our counters: As I said in my email to you, please don't be discouraged by all these zeros. Having an accurate count, even if it's disappointing, is the important thing. Thanks!

Very Disappointing Numbers So Far...

I haven't made many posts this past week as I've been trying to get a read on what's been transpiring - and it hasn't been very good.

This is our 5th year of counting so we have some degree of history and we have complete counts as of Day # 7 of the 2010 run. I'm going to compare this first 7 days of the run to prior years in the chart below to demonstrate what's going on. I know that all of these numbers can be confusing, but there are so many variables we have to apply some math to what have we observed.

The table below shows the quantity that was counted through Day # 7 in prior years [these counts were taken at Mill Pond]:

		Compared	Percent Done	Total If 2010	Total Counted	Total Counted
	Count	To 2010	On This Day	Were this Year	This Year	Vs Projected
2010	200
2009	741	-73%	65%	308	1,332	-1,024
2008	980	-80%	21%	976	5,232	-4,256
2007	625	-68%	39%	509	1,741	-1,232
2006	326	-28%	54%	370	720	-350

The column Compared To 2010 shows the percent difference that 2010 is to those prior years. Ex: The 200 in 2010 is 73% less then what we counted through Day # 7 in 2009.

The Percent Done On This Day shows what percent of the total counted in that year were counted through day # 7. Ex: On day # 7 in 2007, we had counted 39% of the total counted for 2007.

The Total If 2010 Were This Year column shows what the total for that year would have projected to using the 2010 count to-date. Ex: On Day # 7 in 2006, we were 54% complete. The 2010 to-date count of 200 extrapolated by 54% projects to 370 counted.

The Total Counted This Year column shows what the actual final count for that year. Ex: In 2007 we counted 1,741 fish in total.

The Total Counted Vs Projected column shows the difference between the two columns to the left. Ex: If in 2008, had we counted 200 fish on Day # 7 of the run, we would have ended up counting only 976 fish in 2008, or 4,245 less fish then there actually were in 2008.

The question is: has the 2010 run actually started in earnest or is this some abnormally we're experiencing, with just a dribble of fish before the rush. If it is the former, any way you look at it, this may be a very disappointing year...

Note: Why do I make these charts? Because lots of people ask me 'How's the run this year'? and then when I tell them, they ask why do I think that, and I say 'It's complicated'.

And we must apply caution to these charts [being just one week done]. Look at how the column Percent Done On This Day varies from year to year: In 2008 we were just 1/5 done after one week whereas at the same relative day in 2009 we were 2/3 done - a huge difference.

Just the same, my gut feeling is not very good.

Settling Down To A Normal Process

After chasing around like a mad-mad for two days, we have the counts through Sunday covered at both locations and will work on the remaining weeks over the next couple of days. The link 'Schedules and Counts' at the top right now points to the 2010 spreadsheet.

There seems to be some high counts for this early in the run, one of 42 in 10 minutes yesterday [these haven't been posted yet to the spreadsheet].

The Osprey have been stirring things up, making huge splashes as they dive for fish, feet first.

Our picture today is of Sara who is up from New Jersey visiting relatives. She stopped by Mill Pond with her parents at 3:15 today, so I handed her a hand clicker and she did my scheduled count - result: 9 herring.


Special thanks to Emory, Ernie, Mary, Meriellen, Jane, Al, Lorne, Dawn, Joan, Bob and especially our new counters Bill & Sandy - a couple who'll do 18 counts this week. These folks pitched in and salvaged out counting program for 2010 by covering this entire week at 2 locations on very short notice.

Scrambling To Cover Counts

We were caught off guard with the early arrival of the herring and have been chasing folks to count this week as we didn't any paperwork with their availability in before today. We've been focusing on getting just this week covered and will do the remaining weeks as a separate effort.

Today [04-05], the water temp was 58F, which is plenty warm, and there were 20-30 herring in the pool at Mill Pond at 1:00, so things seem to be going well.

The picture is from Easter Sunday with some kids getting a close-up look. Out of sight behind the peninsula that is in the background, the Mute Swan is on her nest - so we'll have cygnets the first week of May

Herring Have Arrived!

First herring spotted at Mill Pond on Saturday, April 3, 2010, and we started counting Sunday April 4.

This is the earliest date we've recorded since we started counting. The last four years were:

• 2009 - 04-19
  
• 2008 - 04-10
  
• 2007 - 04-20
  
• 2006 - 04-12

And while the water temperature was warm enough for the past week or so [it was 57F yesterday - they like at least 51F] the abnormally high rainfall the last couple of weeks most likely resulted in the velocity of the water traveling through the 175'+ pipe under Route 28 being too strong for the herring to overcome.

The amount of water going over the spillway at Mill Pond decreased dramatically over the last few days.

Prepareing For The 2010 Run!

We're getting ready for the 2010 migration and will soon be asking all who have counted before or who have signed-up to count to get the process rolling again.

Most folks work online directly into spreadsheets we prepare individually for each of them. We also have a few folks who work offline and we work with them over the phone.

The first step is for the counters to indicate their availability and preferences and then on this end we prepare a master schedule [last year's completed one is here] which feeds each of the counter's spreadsheets indicating when and where they are to count and then it's off to the run!

You can read about the details of this process here.

Note to fishermen: oh yes, we know why you come here... and we're happy that there's a secondary benefit to all of our work - letting you guys know when the strippers are in!

Counting For 2009 Is Over!

With almost all zeros for the last two days, we've ended the counting for 2009.

We're deeply indebted to all of our counters - we did over 450 counts and missed only a couple - great work by all involved!!

We'll publish the details of the count in our next Newsletter. Join our Emailing list at the link at the right to receive it.

Note: All of the counters are automatically on this list, no need to join again.

Watching The Counting Results Closely

We're racking up a mostly zeros now and if this goes on for another day or two, we'll call it quits.

We're now in the 25th Day of the Run this year, and as posted earlier, we ended in prior years as follows:

• 2008 - Day 36
• 2007 - Day 23
• 2006 - Day 27

2008 was by far the biggest Run we've recorded - in both volume and duration, so realizing that 2009 won't be anything like 2008, the years 2007 and 2006 suggest we're about done.

Depends Upon How You Look At It...

While my last post lamented over the sudden drop-off in counts, there is a bright side to the numbers!

If you click on the "schedules and counts" link at the right, then on the "MillPond.YearToYear" tab, you'll see that the 2009 "Run Cumulative Count" for day 19 [the last completely counted day as of this writing] was 1,288 Herring.

Compared to 2008 [4,577], that's not very good - a drop of 3,289 Herring counted, or -72%. BUT, compared to 2006 [481] it's a increase of 807 Herring counted or +167% - and that's great news!

Why? Because the Herring returning in 2009 have nothing to do with the Herring that were here in 2008 and 2007. Herring are at least 3 years old before they reach maturity and return to spawn, meaning that the Herring in the 2009 migration are the offspring of those in the 2006 migration.

Granted, some of those returning in 2009 may be 4 years old [and older], but almost all of my research puts the return at 3 years of age. So, we should be pleased that the 2006 offspring are returning in significantly higher numbers!

Separately, we're monitoring the counts very closely now, as we'll try to end the counting as soon as it looks like the migration is over, so as to not waste our counter's time.

But a look at 2006 shows 2 surges after some very low counts. And, perhaps we stopped just a little too soon in 2008.

We know that many of our counters are ringing in zeros right now, but if we didn't count them, we wouldn't know they were zero - and knowing it's zero is equally as important as knowing it was, say 100.

Disappointing Counts...

The bottom has fallen out of the numbers at Mill Pond starting Wednesday 04-29 through Sunday 05-03.

While there are a couple of counts not yet posted, most of the above days have less then 10 Herring counted for the entire day [that's just what we count, not what the total number of Herring for these days].

Don't know if there will be a second wind, as in prior years, but we'll keep counting for awhile yet.

We're now in Day 18 of the Run this year and the Run ended in prior years as follows:

• 2008 - Day 36
• 2007 - Day 23
• 2006 - Day 27

But interestingly, on Day 18 of prior years, here's what Percent Complete the Run was:

• 2008 - 87%
• 2007 - 92%
• 2006 - 64%

We have completed the counts through Day 14 of this year with a total of 1,242 Herring counted. In prior years the number counted through Day 14 were as follows:

• 2008 - 3,787
• 2007 - 1,448
• 2006 - 400
  

Nothing Slips By OUR Counters...

William counting at 4:00 today at the sluiceway at Middle Pond.

We call this location The Jail House, because the grate that you see in the photo is the door from an old jail cell, recycled. It's on hinges and opens to allow work on the control boards.



This control gate manages the amount of water entering the sluiceway, which is shown below. This provides passage for the Herring from the Marstons Mills River - which is 1,100 ft distant - to Middle Pond.

This sluiceway was built in 1850 for $3,600 [that's about $73,000 today].

Charts By Year

The charts below present the count volumes by day at Mill Pond for the last 3 years, and they don't show much consistency. We suspect that the second peak that occurs in about the forth week might be Blueback Herring [versus the earlier arriving Alewives] and this year we plan to catch and release a sampling to determine this. It's almost impossible to tell by looking into the water from above.

Top: 2008 ~ Middle: 2007 ~ Bottom: 2006

Steady Volume At Mill Pond

Through Day 7 of the run [04-25], the count is 24% greater than the average of the last three years.

Some Boring Numbers...

The only reasonable way to make a projection of how things are progressing while the Herring Run is active would be to look at prior years to see what "percent complete" those years were on the same relative day of the run.

So, for example, on 04-23-2009 we were in Day 5 of the run.

Below shows what percent complete we were on Day 5 in prior years. This is computed by dividing the fish counted through Day 5 by what was counted in total for that year. In the brackets is the projection of this year's count to date [through Day 5] using the percent done for each of those years:

• 2008 - 15% [2,734]
• 2007 - 31% [1,303]
• 2006 - 37% [1,092]

This shows quite a range, which demonstrates how wrong you can be when you have such little history to base projections upon.

A more reliable predictor may be to use a composite of all the prior years. This would be done by adding together the final total of all Herring counted in the prior years and dividing that into the sum of just [in this example] the first 5 days of all prior years.

When we do that [1,584 / 7,693] the resultant "Composite Percent Done" is 20.6%. With this year's cumulative count through Day 5 of 404, that projects out to 1,962 Herring to be counted this year [counted, not total Herring].

This 1,962 is 1,238 more than the average of all prior years counted though Day 5, or 37% better than that average. Note that these numbers will most likely fluctuate as this year's run progresses.

This approach is based upon precious little history [just 3 years now], but may prove to be more useful as we accumulate more data. There may be more precise methods as well with more data. And each year doesn't unfold like the prior year's either, with many factors affecting when and in what numbers the Herring arrive.

I do all of this calculating to answer the frequently asked question [which now seems solely directed at me]: "How's the run doing?" So, now I can say, for example, "Through Day 5, 37% better than the average of the last 3 years."

You can follow these numbers being calculated as the run progresses by clicking on the "schedules and counts" link at the right, then clicking on the "MillPond.YearToYear" tab.

Coming next year: Projecting what the total number that the Herring migration will be, not just the counts.

Increasing Volumes, But Still Early

Counted 82 herring in 10 minutes at Mill Pond at 5:00 today as the daily volumes continue to grow. The record for a 10 minute count was 241 on day 11 of the run last year [we're on day 7 today].

Most high counts occur between 3:00 - 5:00 [look at the hourly percents at the bottom of the spreadsheet linked to at "schedules and counts" at the right]. So if you want to watch the Herring at their best that would be the time. I'm going to stick my neck out and say the peak days will be April 29 through May 1.

All counts have been scheduled through 05-23. That's 35 days in total, counting 9 times a day at 2 locations for a total of 630 counts.

We have a couple of counters that we're holding in reserve to cover unexpected problems, so while a couple of weeks ago we were concerned about have enough people, we're in great shape now. Yesterday I found Lorna at the Mill Pond Herring Run - she's going to count 80 times!

Early Numbers Disappointing Vs Prior Years

While we're still very early into the run, here's where we are after 4 days compared to the same relative day in prior years:

• 2009 = 266
  
• 2008 = 652 [2009 is down 59% from this]
  
• 2007 = 485 [2009 is down 45% from this]
• 2006 = 266 [strangely, exactly the same]

Be careful about drawing any conclusions from these numbers, as they are most likely going to change in the upcoming days.

Note that these numbers are just what has been counted, not a projection of the total Herring that has passed to date.