Attention All Counters!!

River Day will be held Sunday, May 4th at Burgess Park on Route 149 in Marstons Mills and you can view the schedule of the day's events here. We invite everyone to visit us at our table to learn more about the counting program, the herring migration and the Marstons Mills River in general.

AND, to reward all of those who have counted in 2008, you'll receive lunch on us! Just pick up a coupon good for the lunch at River Day that's put on by the Liberty Hall Club.

AND, all who have counted for us in 2008 are eligible to enter the Herring Counting Contest. Just fill out the free entry form and guess the total number of herring. This total is what the projection of the counts will be, NOT the total of the counts we've taken. The person with the closest guess wins $250.00! [in case of a tie, the prize will be split].

If you are a counter and can't attend Sunday you can still enter the contest up until May 30, when the counting ends - just contact me.

This contest is open only to those who have counted in 2008, so your chances of winning are great - and they'll be even better for some other counter if you don't enter!

The counting is going very smoothly with 324 counts taken [6,772 herring] across both counting stations - and only 2 counts missed so far.

Through Day 18 of the run, at just Mill Pond, we've counted 3,214 more fish than last year or a 185% increase. [These numbers are the fish counted - not the projections of those counts].

However, volume is decreasing each day and it's hard to guess when it will end. In 2006 it dropped way off on Day 27 and in 2007 it did the same on Day 21. [See the link at the top right to see the counts and numbers over the past couple of years].

Continued Strong Volume And Great Projection!

The counts have been quite strong and steady over the last few days.

So, with my regular disclaimer about reading too much into these projections, here's how the counts to-date at Mill Pond could be interpreted:

Assuming a "Percent Done" of 56% [where we were on Day 11 in 2007] and with a cumulative count through Day 11 in 2008 of 2,485, that projects to a total count for 2008 of 4,424 or 2,683 more fish counted [in total] in 2008 over 2007, an increase of 154%.

These are projections of counts only [not of the total fish]. And I'm using my formula for forecasting - which is just that - my formula. So, it will be interesting when 2008 is all counted to see how accurate my projections were during the count.

In my next Post I'll have charts for these numbers and it will clearly show the change in the "curve" of 2006 compared to 2007: if you look at the spreadsheet for the Mill Pond.YearToYear numbers [link at top right], you'll see that on Day 11 in 2006 we were 55% Done, very close to the Day 11 for 2007 of 56% Done. But if you look ahead you'll see that on Day 21 they were 68% and 99% respectively.

So this shows the dangers of trying to do these projections: on Day 21 in 2006 we had about another 1/3 to go, in 2007 we were almost finished.

When we have more history, we could combine the historical activity and have a "blended" curve, but I can think of a few problems with that. Any ideas about that from anyone out there? Is there anyone out there?

Huge Numbers Today!!

The 4Pm count at Mill Pond yielded 241 herring in a 10 minute period - a record since we've started counting in 2006 and almost twice the one set just yesterday.

Al Baker reports that things seem a bit smoother at the Middle Pond station where there had been issues the last few days with the herring backing up trying to make the last step into Middle Pond.

Four Osprey were circling Mill Pond at 4Pm.

The Count Goes On!

The counting is going very smoothly with 24 counters working right now and another 3-4 in the works to count in later weeks. We still need help if you can spare 10 minutes a day for 15-20 days [you can pick your times].

As of today we have about 275 counts that are not covered [see link at top right, then the columns 'Not Covered' and 'Cumulative Not']. What we don't know now is when the run will stop so we'll schedule through the end of May and then call everyone off when it ends.

Above is Jackie [5] of Cotuit who was commandeered to help count when she happened by the Mill Pond Herring Run on April 19 at 1PM with her mother and her sister Sammy [7], who did the first five minutes [below].

Most of our counters are a quite a bit older [these kids were carefully supervised by your's truly who had that scheduled count] and most are from the Mills with several from Cotuit, Osterville and West Barnstable.

The average counter takes 20-25 counts over the 6 week counting period.

This afternoon at 3pm [April 19] we counted 126 in a 10 minute period, which was the largest count since we started counting in 2006. The next highest was 109 on May 5, 2007.

The Osprey were expertly working Mill Pond today, circling and diving for herring, then flying south towards Prince Cove where I've heard they are nesting. They are here most afternoons now.

Volume Up 42% Over 2007!

The actual counts [not projections] through day 5 of the run are 42% higher than last year: 772 vs 545. And back in 2006, there were a total of just 266 through day 5. And there are still a couple of counts for day 5 of this year that have not been posted as yet - but they are expected to be small as they are in the morning.

This isn't predictive of the entire run, just the actual counts to-date. There's no indication at this point that this will be representative of what will happen in future days or how long the run will last. Also, projections made in the first few days can be volatile - like were we right about when day 1 occurred - this year and last?

This volatility smooths out as we get more days under our belt, but just the same it's encouraging...

The counts are posted in a spreadsheet that you can see by clicking on the link at the top right of this Blog. In there you'll find a tab for each counting location [Mill Pond and Middle Pond] and a year-to-year summary for Mill Pond [this is the first year for Middle Pond Counting - no prior year numbers yet].

Whooops!

Just found out that people who signed up to help with the counting had their offer drift off into cyberspace!

If you offered to help count at MarstonsMills.org before April 15, 2008 please do so again.

My apologies...

We should have some updated counts in a day or so, been busy scheduling those who responded late. Expect things to really pop later this week when temperatures go up.

Strong early volume...

Several signs are indicating a strong run for this year, compared to 2007 and 2006.

It's way too early to be certain, but the first few days have been the strongest in volume for the comparable period of the last two years. And the water temperature is still on the cool side with lots of cloudy weather that keeps it that way.

I've been a little slow getting numbers posted as we have several new counters still learning the process [but not Mary M, oh no] and I don't want to project a day unless I have like 6 or 7 counts.

Look for updated counts at the link at the at the top right of this page. In that spreadsheet are tabs for both locations [Mill Pond and Middle Pond].

The counters have been scheduled only through April 19 as I haven't heard back from several people yet and I'm getting a little concerned about having enough counters. I've "front-loaded" those that have replied hoping to find more counters for later weeks.

I'll be at Mill Pond tomorrow afternoon as there should be plenty of herring and plenty of people watching them [and me to trying to recruit them].

If you would like to help or know someone who would, please let me know! See the info at MarstonsMills.org.

Also, you can subscribe to this Blog and get each post sent to you. Click on the link at the very bottom of the blog to get updates to this Blog sent to your reader.

Herring have arrived!

We've been monitoring the run at Mill Pond several times a day and the first arrivals were seen this morning and with a noticeable volume.

Water temperature is 55F, which is just about right, with today's sunshine doing the trick.

We've started the counting operation as of mid-day.

The Harbinger of Herring...

For the first time this year the extremely reliable precursor of the arrival of herring was spotted on Mill Pond - the aptly named Herring Gull!

Since I live beside Mill Pond and observe it year-round, I can tell you with certainty that the only time they are here is when the herring are running.

You can find them in two locations: at the top of the ladder where they just sit waiting for a herring to pass through the control gate [they fight over this spot] and also at the northerly end of the pond where the river enters - here a delta makes the water very shallow - and they just stand in the water waiting for a fish to go by.

Since the herring are most likely already in Prince Cove [scouts have been spotted just below Route 28] the gulls probably know this and since they aren't good at taking fish from open water, they come to Mill Pond and just wait for some easy pickings.

There were no herring in the run this morning, but I'd bet they are coming very soon...

The gulls, however, are completely upstaged by the Osprey. They put on an incredible show one afternoon last April when five were fishing at the same time at Mill Pond. It's amazing to watch them circle overhead and then when they spot a fish go into a feet-first dive into the water and then come up with a fish in their talons.

Stay posted here and we'll let you know when they're working Mill Pond this year.

Update: The water temperature here at 4:00pm was 44F - with a long ways to go before the herring will come.

Scouts have been spotted...

Al Baker [our own scout] reported this afternoon that there are a few herring present in the basin just south of Route 28 [at Route 149]. These herring are scouts themselves and are 'testing the waters' as they say.

We've planned a contingency to start counting this weekend if need be, but with the cold weather we've seen lately it's unlikely that they'll start in the next few days.

We'll be checking the water temperature regularly starting Friday April, 4th as well. Does anyone know at what water temperature we can expect some migration?

There's a new block on the top right of this Blog where you can monitor the progress of the herring run. For each of the two counting stations there is the Master Schedule that shows which counter is scheduled for which slot and also the Counting Results. These are the actual spreadsheets being used in the project. When you view them they'll say they are updated every 5 minutes, but for the time being [maybe next year] they don't reflect the counts as posted by the counters. And the Master Schedule shows just the counter's number and not their name [but we know who they are...].

The enrollment of counters has been progressing okay but and we're a little behind schedule with just 22 enrolled to-date for this year and with just Emory Anderson completing the preferences on his spreadsheet. You can see an example of a spreadsheet here.

We're waiting to hear back from the 30 or so others that have been contacted.

Where are you?

Preparing for the 2008 Count

We gearing up for the 2008 Count and are looking for additional counters as we plan to count at two locations this year.

If you'd like to help out, please visit MarstonsMills.org and click on the link Herring Counting Project.

More to follow soon...

Things are grinding to a halt...

The counts for the last few days have been mostly zeros, so we'll be terminating the counting program on May 23 instead of June 2 as originally planned.

I know I said that I'd post a graph comparing 2007 and 2006, but other tasks, like getting ready for River Day, took priority.

About 60 people entered the Herring Counting Contest today at River Day and the winner will receive a prize of $250. I'll post a list of the guesses in a few days.

I'll also post complete counting results when we have them back from the Division Of Marine Fisheries, which should be in a couple of weeks.

This 2007 counting program was a tremendous success and the online posting of counts save yours truly a tremendous amount of work. So, thanks again to all who participated!

Volume still strong

The counts are yielding relatively strong and steady numbers, with things still quiet in the morning and most activity in the late afternoon.

The second week of the run [April 29 - May 5] was stronger then the first week in total numbers counted.

This has been a noticeable change from 2006 where the second week faded away to almost nothing.

I'll post a chart in a day or so comparing this year to last.

Encouraging numbers, trends...

Compared to 2006, the herring migration [to date] has been different in several ways.

I say to date, however, because you really can't make an accurate assessment until it's all done, but these points are clear:

1. The quantity is greater than last year: in 2006 the highest single 10 minute count was 60 herring [or 360/hour] and so far this year we've had a high count of 109 [or 654/hour].
2. Many other counts are higher although not as strong as that peak number.
   
3. The trend by day this year is quite different then 2006, when there was a noticeable drop-off after the first week. Except for a few relatively lighter days, this year it's been pretty steady from the beginning.
4. The mornings have been very light, with most of the herring passing in mid to late afternoon, from 2:00 to 6:00 pm.
   

We have only last year to compare to, so it's hard interpret these trends and to make any meaningful predictions, except that in general terms, things look somewhat improved over 2006.

The whole program has been running quite smoothly and our counters have been doing a great job!!

Having them post their counts directly to their online spreadsheets saves a lot of work all around and allows us to post these timely observations.

The fish are jumping [well, they're swimming...]

At times on Monday, April 23, the herring were counted at the rate of several hundred an hour, which was a very welcome sight. If you want to see a lot of herring, the next couple of days will be one of the best times. The run is located here.

Some of our counters are posting their tallies right after taking their count, thus allowing me to provide the readers of this blog such timely information.

But it's still too early to project anything from the numbers so far, as we'll need a few more days of counting to be able to do any meaningful comparison to the 2006 run.

No, they aren't jumping: unlike salmon, which leap out of the water when migrating, herring swim as they move through each step in the ladder of the run. That's why it's so important that there be no obstructions in the flow of water and that the steps in the ladders be carefully designed to accommodate this trait.

The 2006 Run: Day By Day

This chart shows the 2006 herring run, with the daily counts projected to a daily total.

So if the overall trend is the same this year as it was in 2006, that means that the peak day this year will be 4 days after the first sighting.

The first sighting this year was on April 21, 2007. So therefore, the peak this year should occur about 4 days after that, or April 25/26 [just guessing, of course...].

Also, in 2006 50% of the total number of herring arrived in the first 5 days of the run.

If these trends are the same this year as last, and if you knew the daily counts this year and last, you could do a projection for this year, couldn't you? Yeah, you could, but we're not going to post the daily counts anywhere, because...

All of these numbers are intended to torment those that are planning to enter the contest to guess the total herring count this year. You can enter that contest on River Day [May 20, 2007] and win $250!

We'll toss out more help later on with additional numbers that will be totally useless by themselves or in conjunction with anything else we've already told you...

Counting started

Counting started at 7:00 am today. No herring were observed.

The water temperature surged up to 65 degrees at 1:00 pm, plenty warm, and herring were spotted off and on all afternoon.

I took a look down river and saw over 100 fish gathering in a pool.

With the warm temps and ample sunshine forecast for the next few days and with the water volume finally diminishing after the storm earlier this week, we should see some large counts in the next couple of days.

Herring have arrived

Charlie Thifault spotted scouts today at the herring run and we are going to commence counting starting Saturday April 21.

Counters should not be disappointed with zero counts as they will start off as a trickle.

Still no herring

Water temperature today was 51 degrees, so we're moving into the proper range now, but the volume of water from this past storm is still roaring through.

While yours truly had a stick with a thermometer on it stuck in the water, the state environmental police happened to be driving by and thought I was taking herring. Good thing my stick didn't have a net on it...

PS: he said they were running in Brewster.

Schedules sent

The counting schedules were sent out to 32 counters today, with 26 of them working online and 6 through the regular mail.

You can view the Master Schedule here, but it shows just the counter's number in each time slot and it's not real informative unless you know who has which number. We may post the counter's names later [if we get their permission].

Still no fish in sight and the water flow at the Herring Run at Mill Pond is still pretty ferocious. It may take another couple of days for this to flush out. Best guess for the arrival of herring is Saturday or Sunday, April 21-22. In 2006 they arrived on April 12.

All online counters were instructed to standby until they received a notice to start counting.