This past week has shown a 'second wave' - a distinctive event we've seen in prior years as well. After 6 days of counting just 15 herring, then there were 5 days with a total of 139.
This may well be an initial migration of alewives that is followed a couple of weeks later by a migration of blueback herring. Perhaps next year we'll attempt to identify these.
Total herring counted at Mill Pond through Day # 24 of the run for this and prior years are:
2010 ~ 437
2009 ~ 1,332
2008 ~ 4,647
2007 ~ 1,737
2006 ~ 598
Note: The above numbers are just the fish we counted and not a projection of the total herring.
If you attend River Day [Sunday, May 2, 2010, 10:00 ~ 3:00, Burgess Park, Route 149. Marstons Mills] we'll have the counts of this year and prior years on display at the Marstons Mills River Watershed Association's table under the tent.
Also at 11:00 there will be a tour/talk at the Mill Pond Herring Run and another at the Upper Flume at Middle Pond at 11:30.
See the complete River Day program here.
Note to our counters: be sure to stop by our table for a coupon for a free lunch!
And please post your counts as soon as you can so we can get a read of what is going on. We may be close to ending our counting for this year.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Who Ever Said 'No News Is Good News'?
It's been a week since my last post and it isn't good news...
To date at Mill Pond we've taken 142 10 minute counts. Of those, 92 counts were 0 [63%], 45 counts had 1-10 fish and just 5 counts had more than 10 fish for a total of 287 fish counted through Day # 18 of the run.
Counts in prior years through Day # 18 were:
2009 ~ 1,278
2008 ~ 4,575
2007 ~ 1,596
2006 ~ 464
While there was some concern about the velocity of the water in the pipe under Route 28, several views of the lagoon south of that pipe don't show any fish congregating - that is, the heavy rain we had doesn't appear to be an obstacle.
Note to our counters: As I said in my email to you, please don't be discouraged by all these zeros. Having an accurate count, even if it's disappointing, is the important thing. Thanks!
To date at Mill Pond we've taken 142 10 minute counts. Of those, 92 counts were 0 [63%], 45 counts had 1-10 fish and just 5 counts had more than 10 fish for a total of 287 fish counted through Day # 18 of the run.
Counts in prior years through Day # 18 were:
2009 ~ 1,278
2008 ~ 4,575
2007 ~ 1,596
2006 ~ 464
While there was some concern about the velocity of the water in the pipe under Route 28, several views of the lagoon south of that pipe don't show any fish congregating - that is, the heavy rain we had doesn't appear to be an obstacle.
Note to our counters: As I said in my email to you, please don't be discouraged by all these zeros. Having an accurate count, even if it's disappointing, is the important thing. Thanks!
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Very Disappointing Numbers So Far...
I haven't made many posts this past week as I've been trying to get a read on what's been transpiring - and it hasn't been very good.
This is our 5th year of counting so we have some degree of history and we have complete counts as of Day # 7 of the 2010 run. I'm going to compare this first 7 days of the run to prior years in the chart below to demonstrate what's going on. I know that all of these numbers can be confusing, but there are so many variables we have to apply some math to what have we observed.
The table below shows the quantity that was counted through Day # 7 in prior years [these counts were taken at Mill Pond]:
The column Compared To 2010 shows the percent difference that 2010 is to those prior years. Ex: The 200 in 2010 is 73% less then what we counted through Day # 7 in 2009.
The Percent Done On This Day shows what percent of the total counted in that year were counted through day # 7. Ex: On day # 7 in 2007, we had counted 39% of the total counted for 2007.
The Total If 2010 Were This Year column shows what the total for that year would have projected to using the 2010 count to-date. Ex: On Day # 7 in 2006, we were 54% complete. The 2010 to-date count of 200 extrapolated by 54% projects to 370 counted.
The Total Counted This Year column shows what the actual final count for that year. Ex: In 2007 we counted 1,741 fish in total.
The Total Counted Vs Projected column shows the difference between the two columns to the left. Ex: If in 2008, had we counted 200 fish on Day # 7 of the run, we would have ended up counting only 976 fish in 2008, or 4,245 less fish then there actually were in 2008.
The question is: has the 2010 run actually started in earnest or is this some abnormally we're experiencing, with just a dribble of fish before the rush. If it is the former, any way you look at it, this may be a very disappointing year...
Note: Why do I make these charts? Because lots of people ask me 'How's the run this year'? and then when I tell them, they ask why do I think that, and I say 'It's complicated'.
And we must apply caution to these charts [being just one week done]. Look at how the column Percent Done On This Day varies from year to year: In 2008 we were just 1/5 done after one week whereas at the same relative day in 2009 we were 2/3 done - a huge difference.
Just the same, my gut feeling is not very good.
This is our 5th year of counting so we have some degree of history and we have complete counts as of Day # 7 of the 2010 run. I'm going to compare this first 7 days of the run to prior years in the chart below to demonstrate what's going on. I know that all of these numbers can be confusing, but there are so many variables we have to apply some math to what have we observed.
The table below shows the quantity that was counted through Day # 7 in prior years [these counts were taken at Mill Pond]:
| | | Compared | Percent Done | Total If 2010 | Total Counted | Total Counted |
| | Count | To 2010 | On This Day | Were this Year | This Year | Vs Projected |
| 2010 | 200 | | | | | |
| 2009 | 741 | -73% | 65% | 308 | 1,332 | -1,024 |
| 2008 | 980 | -80% | 21% | 976 | 5,232 | -4,256 |
| 2007 | 625 | -68% | 39% | 509 | 1,741 | -1,232 |
| 2006 | 326 | -28% | 54% | 370 | 720 | -350 |
The column Compared To 2010 shows the percent difference that 2010 is to those prior years. Ex: The 200 in 2010 is 73% less then what we counted through Day # 7 in 2009.
The Percent Done On This Day shows what percent of the total counted in that year were counted through day # 7. Ex: On day # 7 in 2007, we had counted 39% of the total counted for 2007.
The Total If 2010 Were This Year column shows what the total for that year would have projected to using the 2010 count to-date. Ex: On Day # 7 in 2006, we were 54% complete. The 2010 to-date count of 200 extrapolated by 54% projects to 370 counted.
The Total Counted This Year column shows what the actual final count for that year. Ex: In 2007 we counted 1,741 fish in total.
The Total Counted Vs Projected column shows the difference between the two columns to the left. Ex: If in 2008, had we counted 200 fish on Day # 7 of the run, we would have ended up counting only 976 fish in 2008, or 4,245 less fish then there actually were in 2008.
The question is: has the 2010 run actually started in earnest or is this some abnormally we're experiencing, with just a dribble of fish before the rush. If it is the former, any way you look at it, this may be a very disappointing year...
Note: Why do I make these charts? Because lots of people ask me 'How's the run this year'? and then when I tell them, they ask why do I think that, and I say 'It's complicated'.
And we must apply caution to these charts [being just one week done]. Look at how the column Percent Done On This Day varies from year to year: In 2008 we were just 1/5 done after one week whereas at the same relative day in 2009 we were 2/3 done - a huge difference.
Just the same, my gut feeling is not very good.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Settling Down To A Normal Process
After chasing around like a mad-mad for two days, we have the counts through Sunday covered at both locations and will work on the remaining weeks over the next couple of days. The link 'Schedules and Counts' at the top right now points to the 2010 spreadsheet.
There seems to be some high counts for this early in the run, one of 42 in 10 minutes yesterday [these haven't been posted yet to the spreadsheet].
The Osprey have been stirring things up, making huge splashes as they dive for fish, feet first.
Our picture today is of Sara who is up from New Jersey visiting relatives. She stopped by Mill Pond with her parents at 3:15 today, so I handed her a hand clicker and she did my scheduled count - result: 9 herring.
Special thanks to Emory, Ernie, Mary, Meriellen, Jane, Al, Lorne, Dawn, Joan, Bob and especially our new counters Bill & Sandy - a couple who'll do 18 counts this week. These folks pitched in and salvaged out counting program for 2010 by covering this entire week at 2 locations on very short notice.
There seems to be some high counts for this early in the run, one of 42 in 10 minutes yesterday [these haven't been posted yet to the spreadsheet].
The Osprey have been stirring things up, making huge splashes as they dive for fish, feet first.
Our picture today is of Sara who is up from New Jersey visiting relatives. She stopped by Mill Pond with her parents at 3:15 today, so I handed her a hand clicker and she did my scheduled count - result: 9 herring.
Special thanks to Emory, Ernie, Mary, Meriellen, Jane, Al, Lorne, Dawn, Joan, Bob and especially our new counters Bill & Sandy - a couple who'll do 18 counts this week. These folks pitched in and salvaged out counting program for 2010 by covering this entire week at 2 locations on very short notice.
Monday, April 5, 2010
Scrambling To Cover Counts
We were caught off guard with the early arrival of the herring and have been chasing folks to count this week as we didn't any paperwork with their availability in before today. We've been focusing on getting just this week covered and will do the remaining weeks as a separate effort.
Today [04-05], the water temp was 58F, which is plenty warm, and there were 20-30 herring in the pool at Mill Pond at 1:00, so things seem to be going well.
The picture is from Easter Sunday with some kids getting a close-up look. Out of sight behind the peninsula that is in the background, the Mute Swan is on her nest - so we'll have cygnets the first week of May
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Herring Have Arrived!
First herring spotted at Mill Pond on Saturday, April 3, 2010, and we started counting Sunday April 4.
This is the earliest date we've recorded since we started counting. The last four years were:
The amount of water going over the spillway at Mill Pond decreased dramatically over the last few days.
This is the earliest date we've recorded since we started counting. The last four years were:
- 2009 - 04-19
- 2008 - 04-10
- 2007 - 04-20
- 2006 - 04-12
The amount of water going over the spillway at Mill Pond decreased dramatically over the last few days.
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